Just how far has John McCain’s stock fallen? According to a recent Rocky Mountain poll, he could face double digit defeat… in 2010. Yeah, even in Arizona, his home state, his popularity is less than 50%. The Rocky Mountain poll has popular Governor Janet Napolitano beating him 47% to 36% head-to-head. Napolitano is popular (59%), and could help downticket Democrats with a strong showing. McCain, on the other hand, is tied to an unpopular war, an unpopular immigration bill, and a really lousy attendance record.
Is it any wonder that McCain only leads by 9% in his home state’s GOP presidential primary? I’m glad he’s still in the race, because every dollar he spends is GOP donor money gone splendidly to waste.
(h/t Pollster.com – about 6 days old but I was on vacation and no one else diaried about it)
UPDATE: I guess that’s why McCain’s considering applying for public financing. The 100 million dollars he had planned to raise didn’t come through, so now he’ll probably take 6 million in federal funds just so he retire his debt. Anyone else think he’ll save some of the money he raises from here on out to protect his Senate seat in 2010?
[Napolitano] was ranked as doing an excellent or good job by 59 percent of those asked, and only nine percent gave her a poor or very poor rating.
The poll found that 76 percent of Democrats think she’s doing an excellent or good job, while 51 percent of independents and 41 percent of Republicans give her that ranking.
In a hypothetical head-to-head race for McCain’s Senate seat, 47 percent of those polled would vote for Napolitano, 36 percent for the sitting Republican senator, and 17 percent were undecided.
The poll, conducted by the Behavior Research Center of Arizona, was conducted between July 27 and Aug. 4 and has a margin of error of 3.9 percent.
Credit: AP, Aug. 21, 2007
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I seriously doubt McCain will even bother trying to run for reelection in 2010, he’s finished as a serious politician. He’s pretty much destroyed any credibility he’s had as a mavrick and of being accepted into the conservative base.
All that’s left is a tired old man.
Yes Mccain has fallen immensely since the beginning of his campaign, but he has one factor none of the other top tiers do, low expectations. When the primaries actually come around, expectations are going to be more important than money or standings. Romney has the expectations to do well in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada.
Giuliani is expected to do well everywhere else (except the south, not counting florida) and if he doesn’t get at least second to Romney in the first states he’ll lose momentum. For Romney, if he loses Iowa (ala Howard dean) he’s done unless he can rebound with a STRONG showing in New Hampshire.
Thompson is expected to do well at everything, everywhere, while simultaneously channeling the spirit of Ronald Reagan and farting candy apples.
Mccain however doesn’t have high expectations. if he should somehow win either Iowa, or new Hampshire, he’d be 1st tier again in a snap, just like how John Kerry knocked out dean in 04. if he lost it wouldn’t matter as much.
I’d love to see Napolitano in this race. She has the potential to make this race into an easy pick-up regardless of whether McCain runs or not (I doubt he will, but you never know). Even if she doesn’t get in, there are some potential second-tier candidates that could still make this a serious race:
-Rep. Giffords is the name most often thrown out there if Napolitano passes; we’ll probably have to see how she does in ’08 to be sure. If she has a challenger that’s somewhat more formidable than Randy Graf and she still trounces them, expect her to at least consider a run.
-Another opportunity might lie with Attorney General Terry Goddard, as he has a bipartisan appeal similar to Napolitano’s, a and enoguh military experience to win praise out here. Also, he served as mayor of Phoenix throughout most of the 80s, which will probably help him with Maricopa County (the entirety of Phoenix-metro), a must-win for obvious reasons.
-I could see Reps. Pastor or Grijalva trying to get in as well, but they’re both probably too liberal to win outside of their districts, and neither would likely be willing to give up safe seats unless this seemed like a sure thing. However, either might be able to energize the ever-growing Hispanic populations in Arizona to such a point that they are carried to victory.
Napolitano would definitely be my choice; I’d be thrilled to have her as my Senator. Even if she passes on the race, there are many more potential candidates beyond these that could bubble up in the next few years.
I recently found out that a friend of mine is from Arizona and I told her I liked her governor and she said she didn’t know who her governor was. I said the one like the ice cream and the full name came straight to her. I don’t know if there is any campaign strategy in there, but I found it amusing.